tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post9103605489126021451..comments2020-03-23T07:47:07.485-04:00Comments on One Tip Per Day: Calculate the odd of winning Powerball in RXianjunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15082286110724457588noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-22942013566368399132016-01-29T08:34:51.275-05:002016-01-29T08:34:51.275-05:00Very comprehensible analyses, an eye-opener for ma...Very comprehensible analyses, an eye-opener for many I would say. Thanks for the tip it was rather timely. People should understand what they are getting into be it Powerball or other <a href="http://jokerlottogreece.pen.io" rel="nofollow"> lottery</a>. Casimir Royalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11276577521269517977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-41791112746382543482016-01-15T11:58:29.950-05:002016-01-15T11:58:29.950-05:00you are right. It's not practical at all, as t...you are right. It's not practical at all, as this following article states: http://www.businessinsider.com/buying-every-powerball-ticket-2016-1 "According to Statista, JPMorgan Chase Bank has about 189,000 employees. That means that there are about 1,546 possible Powerball tickets for each employee. If each employee spent 10 hours a day buying and filling out Powerball tickets for three days, this would mean each employee would need to fill out about 50 tickets per hour."Xianjun Donghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16940344808359020274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-44710163533981608072016-01-15T10:50:55.463-05:002016-01-15T10:50:55.463-05:00That's a really interesting point! I would sa...That's a really interesting point! I would say that buying 292 million tickets (of which only a few win) would definitely incur a lot of expense (i.e. loss) in my book. <br />I wonder if there's a hedge fund buying all the numbers right now. I hope they sent the intern to wait in line.... which makes me think that perhaps your analysis doesn't account for the acquisition cost of each ticket.Genehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14036049106224244818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-70934978135010549542016-01-14T23:51:47.304-05:002016-01-14T23:51:47.304-05:00I guess you can if you loss a lot and keep the evi...I guess you can if you loss a lot and keep the evidence. But don't take my words as I'm not an expert on tax. Better ask someone knowing tax things better. Xianjun Donghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16940344808359020274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-32030841619153477102016-01-14T09:43:36.236-05:002016-01-14T09:43:36.236-05:00This was fun! Is it possible to deduct the gamblin...This was fun! Is it possible to deduct the gambling losses on the losing tickets on your tax return, thus lowering the final tax bill?Kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16150821087208654065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-64244281911322958132016-01-13T10:13:19.522-05:002016-01-13T10:13:19.522-05:00Of course not. Actually it's fun to read your ...Of course not. Actually it's fun to read your website. Nice to know you. Xianjun Donghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16940344808359020274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-10095362250777637562016-01-12T23:53:16.336-05:002016-01-12T23:53:16.336-05:00Fine by me. I've just done a similar write-up ...Fine by me. I've just done a similar write-up myself. Mind giving a shout-out?<br /><br />http://www.jcarroll.com.au/2016/01/stats/jackpot/Jonathan Carrollhttp://jcarroll.com.aunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-57668545850198052702016-01-12T21:16:30.528-05:002016-01-12T21:16:30.528-05:00Thanks. I don;t get the part "jackpot payoff ...Thanks. I don;t get the part "jackpot payoff is 1.92x the price of the ticket". Could you please describe with more details?Xianjun Donghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16940344808359020274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-48864697158469630152016-01-12T21:14:25.958-05:002016-01-12T21:14:25.958-05:00Thanks. This looks much better. If you don't m...Thanks. This looks much better. If you don't mind, I take it for the update :)Xianjun Donghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16940344808359020274noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-54290072669868908932016-01-12T20:07:46.015-05:002016-01-12T20:07:46.015-05:00930e9 should be 930e6.
It would be clearer if you...930e9 should be 930e6.<br /><br />It would be clearer if you outlined the math behind the total winnings combinations;<br /><br />totwin <- 930e6*1 + <br /> 1e6*choose(5,5)*choose(25,1) + ## match 5 out of 5 white, don't match powerball<br /> 5e4*choose(5,4)*choose(69-5,1)*choose(1,1) + ## match 4 out of 5 white, match powerball<br /> 1e2*choose(5,4)*choose(69-5,1)*choose(25,1) + ## match 4 out of 5 white, don't match powerball<br /> 1e2*choose(5,3)*choose(69-5,2)*choose(1,1) + ## match 3 out of 5 white, match powerball<br /> 7*choose(5,3)*choose(69-5,2)*choose(25,1) + ## match 3 out of 5 white, don't match powerball<br /> 7*choose(5,2)*choose(69-5,3)*choose(1,1) + ## match 2 out of 5 white, match powerball<br /> 4*choose(5,1)*choose(69-5,4)*choose(1,1) + ## match 1 out of 5 white, match powerball<br /> 4*choose(5,0)*choose(69-5,5)*choose(1,1) ## match 0 out of 5 white, match powerball<br />prettyNum(totwin, big.mark=",")<br />[1] "1,023,466,048"<br /><br />You've also missed a couple of combination factors, probably because you've dropped terms.Jonathan Carrollhttp://jcarroll.com.aunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12445049.post-5793567669449055822016-01-12T18:48:04.692-05:002016-01-12T18:48:04.692-05:00Thanks! Jackpot payoff is off by a few digits thou...Thanks! Jackpot payoff is off by a few digits though. I think you want 9.3e8 instead of 930e9. The expected value of the jackpot payoff is 1.92x the price of the ticket assuming only one winner.bryceronihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03545952444743259449noreply@blogger.com